Unfinancial Uranium Markets & Global Bans

Western Desert - home to the 4 approved WA uranium mines - photo Elizabeth Murray

One curiosity in successive WA governments’ approach to uranium mining, approvals, and related expensive court costs, is that the unsustainable price of uranium is widely known.

It was even investigated by South Australia, which funded a Royal Commission into the viability of the Nuclear Energy Cycle just four years ago.

The 2015 Royal Commission found despite known cost benefits of uranium, an uncertain and oversupplied market rendered development of the state’s uranium processing capabilities uneconomic until 2026 at least. (Jacobs' approvals were in 2017, Price's 2019 - still another 7 years to go...) 

It also flagged dire public concerns over the use and development of uranium, which would render political involvement in the process futile.

Cameco and Toro, owners of three of WA’s uranium projects, have reported that they are taking a wait-and-see approach with the market downturn.

Toro has commenced gold exploration on their Wiluna site, and it is clear they are looking for workable solutions to uranium’s current financial dead end. An existing gold mine is already in the region and has generated far less community concern and resistance than uranium proposals.

Cameco’s 2019 first quarter report last week reassured shareholders by saying that its WA operations – Yeelirrie and Kintyre, were ready should the uranium price recover at some point in the future.

Around the time of WA Environment Minister Albert Jacob’s pre-election approvals (now former minister), Cameco had already quite openly taken protective steps to steel itself against the declining market. 

The company had redirected the Australian CEO to Canada and shuttered two of its largest uranium mines (in Canada) that produced as much as 10% of the world’s uranium supply.

Despite WA government media statements lauding the future jobs and wealth those projects would create, there the Barnett government included no fine print about the spiralling financial decline of uranium and processing.

The 2017 government justifications for the project approvals of plentiful jobs, and vast economic returns, right before the last state election, have an eerily similar ring to Minister Price’s pre-election approval.

In contrast however, Vimy recently told media its Mulga Rock project is proceeding to secondary permitting and licensing, and that it had been “allowed through” Labor’s uranium mining ban.

Labor clearly stated in 2017 it would not enact their uranium mining ban retrospectively, due to government fears previously approved companies (Cameco, Toro Energy and Vimy Resources) could sue.

This blog revealed last week, it also does not stop uranium exploration by dedicated uranium exploration companies.

Notably, since Kyrgyzstan declared it would implement a uranium mining ban last month due to public pressure, its one uranium mining company, Azarga, has simply suspended production even though it has not had its license revoked.

The unfinancial price of uranium has stalled uranium mining in WA for the time being and Vimy is evidently taking care of administrative business until it rises. Hence, the flexuous WA uranium mining ban does not at this stage, or in the near future, look like it has any challenges except for those posed by its own limitations.

Vimy’s persistent optimism amid longstanding unprofitable markets, appears to be a firm public relations policy differentiating it from the ongoing, candid comments of its rivals on market conditions.  

Vimy’s stance on public communications more generally has drawn questions and criticism in the past (ASIC was approached for confirmation of the two matters but said they could not confirm or deny complaints).

The company has sought to move in response to the uranium probe in the US; two US-based suppliers have called for a 25% domestic stake in uranium supply. 

Some have speculated that potential supply and demand problems stemming from changes in US trade policy may see the price rise.

##NB Dr Cameron Murray, who is the author of the Australian Institute report linked above is not related to the author of this blog.

Camp - Australian Outback, Photo - Elizabeth Murray

Uranium Ban Shortcomings Worry, After Big Labor Loss

A uranium mining ban implemented by the incumbent Western Australian Labor government in 2017 looked like a game changer for the various campaigners, some of whom have been fighting on this front since the 1970’s.

Most watchful eyes are now focused on the David and Goliath court battle waged by the remote Tjiwarl Elders against the slick machinations of the Liberals’ state and federal environmental approval processes.

But a year out from the next WA state election and hot on the heels of yet another turn towards the conservative Liberal government, the ban's shortcomings look set to cause long-term problems. 

West Australia's Western Desert region - supplied CCWA

Environment Minister, Melissa Price, her federal electorate squarely in WA uranium country, appeared to jumped the gun right before the election was called, to grant approval to Cameco’s Yeelirrie mine. This was despite her previous commitment to waiting out the court process, and, that the matter was still under appeal in the WA Courts.

For all her trouble Cameco’s praise just highlighted the emptiness of that play – that without a sustainable market, the project’s stasis simply continues uninterrupted. 

The optics and allegations that Price took and acted upon the owner’s advice mired her election campaign. The Opposition called for an inquiry, and following the re-election of the federal Liberal government Price was shipped out to the Defence Industries portfolio to work in tandem with a more senior minister in an adjacent portfolio.

Cameco comments on Price advice – Slezak: Government Approved Mine Day Before the Election Called_ABC
(Link Above)

Price's Yeelirrie approval looked carefully-timed to reduce media attention, right before the ANZAC Day national holiday. After its discovery, seemingly, Price went to ground. 

Matthias Cormann supportively stepped in for his colleague, confirming she had not snuck the approval through the day before the election was called. He clarified that she had actually had the approval since March 5.

Cormann comments on March 5 approval_SBS_AAP (Linked Above)

Ban Shortcomings - Bigger Problems Ahead?

Vicki Abdullah - Tjiwarl Traditional Owner
& 1 of the Appeal Applicants - Supplied

The ban’s weaknesses have been relatively unnoticeable behind the media spectacle surrounding both, the Tjiwarl Appeal, and, the controversial nature of the former WA government’s sudden 2017 uranium mine approvals. 

Initially, West Australians were told it was virtually impossible for the ban to be used retrospectively to reverse those pre-2017 election approvals. The risk of litigation by the companies was just too high according to the minister.

However, last month, one country that has previously suffered radioactive fallout, took that risky step. 

Kyrgyzstan implemented a total ban after heated protests spread through major centres. The protest movement evinced longstanding public anger over radiation leaks. The capacity of Kyrgyzstan’s ban to retrospectively outlaw uranium mines was planned to balance society’s new priorities against old government approvals. 

However, Australia has also experienced fallout :

In the 1950s atomic tests were facilitated by PM Robert Menzies, and English political lobbyists whose government failed to accurately disclose the dangers or prevent fallout exposure. Menzies was eager to develop economic benefits from nuclear science. 

Tests took place at locations deemed remote and uninhabited, but which were occupied by Aboriginal nations. There were complaints about fallout after the first test. Menzies then signed on for more tests, while English authorities cruelly quipped, that Aboriginal people who were adversely affected should vote (pre-1967-referendum). 

Australian servicemen were also exposed and not adequately protected or warned. In 2003 England denied them compensation for their health problems and their children’s, on the basis they couldn't prove the cause was the 1950s fallout. 

The McClelland Royal Commission 15 years earlier, said high cancer rates probably stemmed from this fallout exposure and also, for the first time, revealed the true extent of Menzies' and England's deceptive misconduct.

The routine litigation argument against a retroactive uranium mining ban, is considerably less onerous for Kyrgyzstan’s government due to the limited number and size of the country’s uranium projects, compared to Western Australia’s. 

In contrast, Western Australia's ban - regardless of possible good intentions, is far less comprehensive and has some surprising shortfalls. These have become particularly obvious after last month's federal Liberal election win. 

One potential issue that exists in WA's ban is that it has no apparent capacity to circumvent uranium-focused mining exploration, which is currently thriving. 

So, 2 years on from the historic reimplementation of WA Labor’s vital uranium mining ban, there are still 4 WA uranium mining projects. 
And, potentially, there could be many more on the horizon. 

Western Australia's Western Desert region - supplied CCWA

The state and federal Liberals’ strong advocacy for the nuclear sector, and, the present, unrestricted mining exploration licenses, will likely underscore more uranium project approvals if the party wins the 2020 or 2023 state election. 

The 4 existing projects are:  

• Vimy Resources’ Mulga Rock (180km from Laverton);  
• Cameco’s Yeelirrie project(Western Desert, 70km out of Wiluna); 
• Kintyre project(near Jigalong in the Pilbara); and,
• the Wiluna project belonging to Toro and Mega Uranium. 

Ironically, WA’s 4 approved projects have not been stymied by the 
WA Labor government’s determined efforts to protect the environment via the ban, 
but by the low-price of uranium since the 2011 Fukushima nuclear disaster.

By the end of last year 49 exploration licenses had reported expenditure for uranium. The government cannot identify which exploration companies are uranium-focused until they report expenditure for uranium, and it ‘may be found unintentionally when exploring for other minerals.’ 
- mining ministry spokesperson.

Although,
some of those licensed exploration companies are really open about their uranium interests. For some it is their selling point on the ASX. Just 1 example, of innumerable exploration companies operating in WA, has 6 WA exploration licenses, including 3 promising ones in the Wiluna region. 

The company is meeting its obligations, the ministry assures, but it may be reasonable to consider if the uranium ban is actually meeting its.

Even though the government ‘has implemented a “no uranium mining” condition on future mining leases, it does not intend to change the regulatory system for uranium exploration,’ the spokesperson said.

Moreover,
last year exploration applications showed a rapid escalation from the usual 200-per-month average, to 366 in May and 300 in June...etc etc. This monthly figure is indicative of the high quantity of new active licenses in resources-driven WA. 

The government enthusiastically supports the state's huge and highly influential mining industry, by encouraging exploration (of various minerals) with a co-funding scheme. The state's economy has long been very reliant on revenue stemming from mining and is still rebalancing from a number of economic shocks in recent years.

In 2018 – just a year after the reimplementation of Labor's epic uranium mining ban, approvals for companies openly looking for uranium were granted. These exploration licenses do not end until 2023. They will span the next 2 WA elections. There is no guarantee of 1 Labor win, let alone 2. 

The uranium mining ban has no preventative measures built into it for the unexpected election outcome of a Labor loss. Also, as the ban is not retroactive, it cannot prevent a recurrence of present mine approval-related problems, after future WA Liberal government terms. 

Even during WA Labor terms, exploration companies are not hindered in finding and mapping uranium discoveries, possibly even co-funded. Companies buying into those discoveries will be free to seek project approvals during future Liberal government terms. ###

Shirley Wonyabong - Yeelirrie Appeal Applicant and Tjwarl Elder - Photo Supplied

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History

I began blogging in 2005 and back then the Blogosphere was a bit of a subculture. It started as an undergraduate journalism writing exercise, but proved very beneficial for familiarization with different CMS, web traffic analysis(even before it was Google Analytics!), multimedia and digital page layouts. Back then iconic legacy media voices were still trying to aggressively stuff the digital-era genie back in the bottle but a few bloggers broke through that ceiling.

Broader workplace acceptance of long-term bloggers is still a bit limited by people's perceptions of mainstream legitimization and editorial constraints, and, a lack of understanding of the medium. These days Wordpress templates are much nicer, but Blogger's CMS is much more speedy and efficient. You'll see some slight changes in the formatting over the coming months as I make myself at home. 

At Present

Australia's freelance news market has been in downturn since the 1990s, but more so since the 2008 GFC that prompted the gutting of mainstream media freelance news budgets. Additionally, sustainable media diversity hasn't been prioritized by successive governments, so that market has continued to break down. 

Most story pitching takes place outside of Australia and that doesn't really address people's ongoing needs for a range of news voices here. I am blogging my stories and activating some RGA through Patreon, Ad-words, Paypal and grants, to keep working within that local newsmarket. It also enables me to maintain non-partisan journalism. 

While valiant, lauded, current affairs roosters make so much noise about the poor pays of various workers, what media consumers won't actually hear is that freelance journalists have been left in the cold to cope with nationwide non-compliance of the award system for decades. Freelance journalism rates can be as little as 5% of the legal award rate. It's a tough gig and getting tougher.